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JMJ
Introduction
!!! From my point of view and based on my understanding of the events !!!
At this point it seems that Cardinal Fernandez et al are either malicious, incompetent or geniuses.
I'm only partly kidding ...
Aside from the surprisingly magnanimous action of Pope Francis providing the SSPX priest with faculties for confession and ability to witness marriages, there has been a long silence between Rome and the SSPX with little or no formal talks or discussions regarding the SSPX state of canonical limbo.
While the FSSP et al were able to meet with Pope Leo XIV, while requests from the SSPX went unanswered ... that is until after the latest unanswered request they announced the date for the consecration of four new bishops.
Only then did the Vatican apparatus lumber into motion. A meeting was held and the speed with which the Vatican issued its press release - within hours of the meeting's conclusion - felt to me like a pre-planned attempt at manipulation that fell short of the mark.
I therefore do not see how a joint process of dialogue could end in determining together what would constitute “the minimum requirements for full communion with the Catholic Church”, since—as you yourself have recalled with frankness—the texts of the Council cannot be corrected, nor can the legitimacy of the liturgical reform be challenged. (link)
The requirement to postpone that consecrations was, I believe, the death-knell of any hope for frank and open discussions (link1, link2, link3). The SSPX has been through this exact situation before and the requirement to postpone the consecrations were seen as a repeat of the 1988 delay tactics. The setting of Vatican 2 as off-limits was a return of the 'mantra' - accept the council and accept the new mass.
As it seems impossible for Cardinal Fernandez to not understand the situation with the SSPX, the only conclusion is that they knew what they were doing.
In order to give them the benefit of the doubt I have come to three possible explanations.
Malicious
Cardinal Fernandez' intent was to draw the SSPX into a discussion, to make a minimal or token effort at said discussion, and present an unpalatable (ie compromise) condition.
This was done in order to ensure that the SSPX was once again "excommunicated", therefore enabling a program of ostracization of all Traditional Catholics and pre-conciliar doctrine from the Catholic Church.
Further, given the reception of representatives of the Orthodox and Protestants at the Vatican - this adherence to the 'mantra' is nothing short of hypocritical.
Incompetent
Cardinal Fernandez' handling of the situation was limited to a repeat of the 1988 response with an addendum of the 1996 explanatory note.
This approach ignored every other element, paper, discussion that was developed in the decades that followed the 1988 act - basically creating a 'back to the past' perspective. This placed Rome in a position to simply restart everything from scratch.
From a negotiation perspective, ignorance or willfully ignoring everything that came before is sheer incompetence, unless one wants to ensure that any negotiations fail or are prematurely aborted (see above option).
Genius
Here's one different and probably equally unpopular and unlikely perspective: Rome is neither malicious nor incompetent.
Who says that Cardinal Fernandez isn't a traditionalist in a wolf's pelt and Pope Leo XIV a hidden Traditionalist???
I can see a number of consequences if Rome were to officially allow the SSPX to consecrate bishops without accepting V2 and the NOM:
- Within the Church
- Open conflict: This would be a repeat persecution of the "Traditionalists" that happened immediately after the Second Vatican Council between Cardinals, Bishops, Priests, Religious (Monks, Nuns etc) and laity. We had a preview of this when Pope Benedict XVI corrected the 'pro multis'. The grey haired Catholics were outraged and freaked that this represented a 'return' to before the council.
- Schism: Those members of the hierarchy and laity who strongly promote various modern theories (Theological, Liturgical and Social) would break off formally - taking Church property with them.
- Emptying: If the Church holds to its Dogmas and Doctrines, which are culturally irreconcilable with the modern world, then there will be a mass exodus from Catholic Churches.
- Outside the Church
- Political Attacks: The Vatican is a 'State' and as a result there is an exchange of ambassadors between countries, agreements, treaties etc. Reasserting key dogmas and doctrines that have been ... unspoken for close to fifty years will result in strains on relations with other countries, recall of ambassadors and perhaps even sanctions.
- Attacks on the economics of the Catholic Church: This would simply be the restriction of financial relations, calling of loans, and revocation of the charitable status of the Church and its properties.
- Persecution of the Catholic Church and its members: This would probably include societal pressures and censures in Western Countries and physical persecution elsewhere in the world. Overtime, we could see a reversion to the second-class status of Catholics.
- Martyrdom: There will be martyrs and there will be many.
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