Tradicat

 + JMJ   [I am waiting on book, but will post this article as-is at the end of October ... and update as necessary]   Back in April I was discussing the lethality of SARS-CoV-2 compared with other diseases. At that point I wrote:   For the Spanish Influenza the data is estimated at greater than 2.5% ... see this 2006 NIH article (link) ), NIH 1918 Influenza: The Mother of all Pandemics - table below p19 (link) , and WHO Pandemic Influenza Risk Management (link) .  Nota Bene: The footnote on the Spanish Flu CFR listed below is that this is for the USA. The world wide data is probably unreliable due to the lack of records.  I'm guessing that the USA data below is more reliable as the US had better records. (See WHO Graph below) Side Note: Something  has been bothering me for a while. Why is the American CFR for Spanish Influenza between 2-3% ... it would seem the COVID-19 - while not as bad as H1N1-1918 - it is in the same league.  I wi...

 + JMJ  Tradiate asked if there is information about co-morbities of COVID-19.  As it happens statscan has released a report (link) in May of this year. A key finding is that "almost 90% of people who died of COVID-19 in 2020 had a least one other comorbidity." So what does it mean?  Well that if you have one of the co-morbities, you have a higher probability of dying (not certain how much).  This however does not speak to long-term issues if you suffer lung or other organ deficites. P^3 ________________   Released: 2021-05-14 COVID -1 9 continues to affect communities and families in Canada. Beyond deaths attributed to the disease itself, the pandemic could also have indirect consequences that increase or decrease the number of deaths as a result of various factors, including delayed medical procedures or increased substance use. To understand both the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic, it is important to measure excess mor...

 + JMJ    Smith made the following statement:: Simple. On Dec. 27, 2020, I took the official world COVID death numbers from worldometers.com , divided it by the world population of 7.8 billion, moved the resulting number's decimal point two places to the right to get a percentage and a total population mortality rate. That TPMR was 0.023%. In contrast, taking an average of the estimates that have been made for total deaths from Spanish flu, and dividing it by the estimated world population at that time, etc. you get a TPMR for Spanish flu of 2.33%  Smith and I have been exchanging emails about this stat and a few other things. First, what is the TPMR for the Spanish Flu and what does it mean? Total Population Mortality rate. I understand that there is some variation in the estimates of the population of the World in 1918. This is understandable on a number of levels. I've seen census notations from that era., so the USA had a working census system. So this is ...

 + JMJ ****** NOTA BENE ****** Smith just sent a lengthy reply to How Lethal is SARS-CoV-2.  In order to manage my time, I will post this draft of my reply to his earlier query. P^3  ****** ARTICLE ******  Smith replied to Update 1 by email and since it is a detailed and deep response, I felt (and they agreed) that it was better to post it on the blog.  This post has been long in the making ... apologies for the delay and any offense I may provide as I try to follow the threads. If I understood correctly, Smith believes that because of the small percentage of the population that have died from the disease, the restrictions (masks, social distancing etc) harm as opposed to help the common-good. I disagree as the TPMR does not reflect the lethality and therefore the anticipated impact a pathogen would have when given unfettered access to a population.   IFR and CFR (see below and the Lethality articles ) a better stats to estimate lethality and therefore...