Uncertainty is a part of life, we just don't think of it much until we are surprised by something out of the ordinary.
For example, most of us don't think twice about driving a car or other vehicle. However, the increase in speed brings with it the increase impact if there is an accident. Only the suicidal or homicidal leave their homes with the intention to have a car 'accident'.
First a definition: Risk is uncertainty that matters. Anything else are just worries.
In the Catholic Life, uncertainty matters if it creates an impact on your ability to achieve your Catholic Vision, Mission, Goals and Objectives (see Part 3 of this Series - Strategic Planning). At the top of the strategy is dying in a state of grace. This matters greatly!
For example, entering a place that is an occasion of sin is definitely a risk.
The next thing to consider is the likelihood of the risk occurring and its impact. In risk management we typically plot these on a matrix or heat map like the one below. Threats are negative risks, whereas Opportunities are positive risks.
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To continue the case of entering a place where there is an occasion of sin. Let's say that the occasion of sin is mortal, that immediately puts us in the far right "Threat" column. In this case the threat is mortal sin. The likelihood of falling into mortal sin moves us up or down. If there is negligible risk of falling into since then it would be in the lower right quadrant and it would be medium risk level of 0.08. If you always fall when entering this establishment, then it is very likely that you will do so again and the risk score is 0.72.
So what happens? You enter the facility where historically 9 times out of 10, you commit a mortal sin and ... you fall.
Now you have placed yourself in a precarious situation, spiritually you stand on a precipice overlooking an active lava flow. If you die in that state then you go to Hell. Sadly, it is that simple.
However, all is not lost, there is a secondary probability to consider that comes from a 'hazards' risk analysis - the probability of harm. Some harm has been done because you are now in a state of mortal sin. However, as Catholics we know that this state is not permanent (i.e. damnation) unless we die. So we need to consider the probability of dying before we get to confession. In Hazards Management this is expressed mathematically as:
Impact (ie severity of harm) x Likelihood of harmful situation being present (ie. falling into mortal sin) x Likelihood of harm (dying in the state of mortal sin).
For the young and healthy, they will think that the probability is low. However, this is where reality sets in, just because you managed to get to confession before does not mean that the probability of death is zero.
We are all just one accident away from eternity, the word for this is catastrophe. This is why we need to turn to God and ask for forgiveness as soon as we fall into sin, because no one promises us the next second, let alone the next sunrise.
This is an extreme case and I will say that the young typically have a higher risk appetite than the old, however it is important to consider the risks to achieving our end goal(s) in this Catholic Life as we move through each moment.
The concept behind the strategy and risk tools is to make informed, deliberate decisions and take action accordingly. It takes practice to make good decisions, to stop, consider alternatives and then take action. While this is a lesson from business, it is equally applicable to practising the Catholic Faith.
P^3
P.S. Another facet that I want to emphasize (again), in risk management we try to classify factors that affect us as either risks, or issues, but there are also worries and fears.
- Risks are uncertainties that impacts your ability to achieve your goals.
- Issues are risks that have happened and you now need to deal with the impact.
- Worries are uncertainties that could happen but have no impact.*
- Fears are uncertainties that are neither likely nor would have an impact.*
The first two are standard definitions. But management worries and fears are phrases that I've heard senior management use more frequently.
Worries are things that could happen, but have no impact on your ability to achieve your goals. It could rain tomorrow, but in the context of eternal salvation, it will have no impact.
Fears are things that you have no reason to believe will occur or have an impact on your goals. However, fear is a subtle motivator.
A sedevacantist or 'resistor' may obstinately hold to a belief because they fear the decisions and actions that they would logically have to take if the belief were false.
In a group, a person who suffered trauma in their childhood may strive to create a sense of safety because people are complex and they fear disapproval.
What is the end-point here? The end-point is that risks and issues are things that we need to deal with. Worries and Fears are things that we need to step back and assess if they actually warrant our attention or are simply distractions from our goal.
P^3
* My definition
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