Skip to main content

COVID-19 The Facts Please

Image
By
+
JMJ

There's a few conspiracy theories circulating about the origin of the pandemic and this is simply people looking for a simple explanation for a complex event.

Sorry people, if you want to understand what is happening, you're going to have to trust the experts with appropriate qualification.  For example a practicing American osteopathic physician such as Dr. Rashid Buttar just doesn't cut it.  Qualifications to look for are PhD's in infectious diseases, genetics, immunology. 

A now a few facts:
  1. The virus was circulating as early as October (note1).
  2. It is not a human derived virus (note 1, 2 and 3)
  3. A preliminary study out of Germany supports the infection fatality rate "the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease" to be ~0.4%.  (note 4)
  4. Data suggests that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe requiring oxygen and 5% are critical requiring ventilation (note 5).  This ratio emerged months ago and has remained roughly the same up to now.
  5. The Spanish Influenza had multiple waves and there is nothing stopping COVID-19 from doing the same.
  6. The case fatality rate only gives you a subset of the picture. Once the pandemic subsides research will be performed to ascertain the infection fatality rate for each country / region.
So, the danger isn't so much from the virus itself but from an overwhelming of the healthcare systems. This is a key factor in keeping down the fatality rate.

Let's put this in perspective, worst case, if everyone in Canada got Covid-19, we would expect about 150,000 people to die.

However, not everyone gets it - otherwise 37,590 people would die every year from seasonal flu.  The 2019/20 flu season had 42,475 confirmed cases of seasonal flu, with 500-1500 deaths per year (combined influenza / pneumonia).
The death rate for influenza in Canada is 500 to 1500 cases per year. The combined, influenza and pneumonia which is a common complication of influenza, kills more than 8,000 people a year. (note 9).
As of today there have been 59,357 cases and 3,675 covid related deaths.

End point: Keep the infection rate down and then the health care system isn't overwhelmed.

So ... wash your hands and stop complaining.

P^3


Notes
1. https://www.dhs.gov/publication/st-master-question-list-covid-19

2. https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-think-of-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab-rumour

3. https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-could-have-been-percolating-innocently-in-humans-for-years

4. https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/?amp

5. https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza#:~:text=Mortality%20for%20COVID%2D19,quality%20of%20health%20care 

6. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2019-2020/weeks-51-1-december-15-2019-january-4-2020.html


7. https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php#SEASONAL

8. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html

9. https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (de fide) - Expanded Listing

By
+ JMJ A friend had mentioned that he has seen a longer list of truths of the Faith than the one I posted here .  I have finally discovered it online. I have yet to completely determine what dogmas were missed in the original, those I have found are highlighted. Source: A List Of The Dogmas Of The Catholic Church - Fr. Carota Alternate Source: Referencing Ott   Posts Listing the Dogmas of the Catholic Church Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (de fide) - Expanded Listing: Answer for Reader (Oct 2022) Updated List of Teachings of the Catholic Church (Oct 2021) *** Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (Oct 2015) De Fide teaching of the Catholic Church (Apr 2013)           *** Latest version    
1 comment
Read more

The Curious Case of Steve Skojec and the Dangers of Deep Diving into the Crisis Sub-Titled: The Failings of Others

By
 + JMJ It's been a while now since Steve Skojec sold 1P5 and abandoned the Catholic Faith. I've been a 'Trad' since 1982 and in those 40+ years I seen this death-spiral before with a similar end point. It seems that anyone who jumps into the fray unprepared for the enormous task of righting wrongs will, eventually, become discouraged by not the task but the people who surround them.   I remember when Skojec complained of the treatment his family received from a traditional priest.  This seems to have been the start of the end for him. So what can we learn from the likes of Steve Skojec, Michael Voris (maybe?), Louie Verrecchio, Gerry Matatix and other celebrity Catholics? Probably quite a lot about what not to do. First, don't burn out on the crisis?  When you burn out, on work or anything else, little things assume a more greater importance than they are due.   This is one of my 'canary in the coal mine' signals that I've been stretching myself too th...
Post a Comment
Read more

De Fide Teachings of the Catholic Church (Updated)

By
+ JMJ  Update: I was reviewing Ott's work directly and noted that some of the Teachings are De Fide while others are different levels of authority (such as Sent Certa etc).  So please refer to Ott for the actual classification). Posts Listing the Dogmas of the Catholic Church Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (de fide) - Expanded Listing: Answer for Reader (Oct 2022) Updated List of Teachings of the Catholic Church (Oct 2021) *** Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (Oct 2015) De Fide teaching of the Catholic Church (Apr 2013)           *** Latest version  
Post a Comment
Read more

Homily vs Sermon

By
+ JMJ Something that I've noticed is that Modern Catholics use the phrase 'Homily' instead of 'Sermon'. I've often wondered about this difference. Here's what I found Catholic Encyclopedia (1910) Homily: ...Since Origen's time homily has meant, and still means, a commentary, without formal introduction, division, or conclusion, on some part of Sacred Scripture , the aim being to explain the literal, and evolve the spiritual, meaning of the Sacred Text.  ... Wikipedia Sermon: : A sermon is an oration , lecture , or talk by a member of a religious institution or clergy . Sermons address a scriptural, theological, religious, or moral topic, usually expounding on a type of belief, law, or behavior within both past and present contexts. Elements of the sermon often include exposition, exhortation, and practical application.   Catholic Encyclopedia (1910) Sermon: As to preaching at the present day, we can clearly trace the influe...
Post a Comment
Read more

Becoming Traditional Catholic Part I

By
+ JMJ It is a big step from the non-Traditional to Traditional Catholic World. First of all, the Trad world is much smaller, isolated and under siege. This leads to a number of interesting elements that a person making the transition needs to take into account. The Trad World Is Smaller It is a fact that in the states there are about 30,000 Traditional Catholics who support the SSPX and about 3,000 in Canada.  The other Traditionalit orders (FSSP, ICK, etc), I assume, are in the same ball park if not smaller. Let put that in perspective, in my area there are 270,000 non-Traditional Catholics. Consequently, aside from the larger centers,  a Traditional 'Parish' or Mass Centre will be 200 people or less. This has the advantage of being like an extended family and cozy. It has the disadvantage that any crazy 'uncles' in that family will be in plain sight. Be forewarned that any eccentricity that would be drowned in a sea of people in a non-Traditiona...
Post a Comment
Read more