How many more must die for the throne? or How to combat FUD! - Part 3 (Update 1

How many more must die for the throne? or How to combat FUD! - Part 3 (Update 1 - At Bottom of Post)

JMJ

Smith made the following statement::

Simple. On Dec. 27, 2020, I took the official world COVID death numbers from worldometers.com, divided it by the world population of 7.8 billion, moved the resulting number's decimal point two places to the right to get a percentage and a total population mortality rate. That TPMR was 0.023%. In contrast, taking an average of the estimates that have been made for total deaths from Spanish flu, and dividing it by the estimated world population at that time, etc. you get a TPMR for Spanish flu of 2.33%

Smith and I have been exchanging emails about this stat and a few other things.

First, what is the TPMR for the Spanish Flu and what does it mean?

Total Population Mortality rate.

I understand that there is some variation in the estimates of the population of the World in 1918. This is understandable on a number of levels.

I've seen census notations from that era., so the USA had a working census system.

So this is probably a more reliable population for assessing the TPMR.

As I noted in part 2 of this series, we can reliably calculate the impact that Spanish Influenza had on the population in 1918 as well as today.

H1N1 (USA) Deaths 675k / Population (1918) 105,000,000 = 0.0064 (0.64%)
SARS-CoV-2 (USA) Deaths 589,207 / Population (2021) 332,606,157 = 0.0018 (0.18%)

While the US SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is still going on, to reach the same level of impact as the Spanish Influenza an additional 1,539,472 people would have to die from that pathogen. Even if the seven day average of 722 deaths per day were to continue the pandemic would have to last an additional 5.8years.

That appears to be unlikely given that a third wave does not appear to be manifesting and the death rate is declining.

As I noted in How Many More ..., it does indeed look like the USA is on the edge of herd immunity due to infection and its immunization plan.

It also looks like, as Smith was trying to point out, that it won't be as bad as 1918. The death toll from H1N1 was 3.6 times worse than those that have died so far. Barring a 3rd wave, we will probably see only between another 50k to 120k more deaths in the USA.

The pandemic isn't over yet ... but from the data I have been able to access, none of the variants have mutated to such a degree as to escape the immunizing effects of either exposure or the current vaccines.

With an estimated IFR of 0.5%, we can estimate that it could have been much worse if measures had not been taken.

But what people will be asking for a while is ... was it worth it? Most cite the economic impacts.

I take a different perspective, was it not a matter of duty to do what could be done to protect life over money.

Of course this pales in comparison to the continue and deliberate murder of babies, but that is an pandemic of another sort.

P^3

Update 1 - At what point does herd immunity impact the progression of a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2?

So I woke up this morning thinking about how a pathogen passes through a population and ... at what point does it reach herd immunity? I went back to the Wiki page and found the formula.

So the current Ro for SARS-CoV-2 is 2. So herd immunity threshold is about 50%. Here's the graph that I found

So - once you get to 50% the outbreak should peter out. So what does that mean for this pandemic?

I'll stick with the states since I'm on that theme and they seem to be heading towards herd immunity.

A 50% herd immunity in the states is 166,303,078 people. So, assuming that half the population needs to be infected, no vaccine is available, and an IFR of 0.005 we arrive at a theoretical fatality of 831,515 people.

So there have been 33,044,872 cases in the states. The ratio cited at the beginning was that cases represent about 20% of infections. So that means that Cases = 0.2 * Infections and ergo infections = Cased / 0.2 = 165,224,360 or ... about half the population.

Vaccinations in the states have reached about 24%.

So yep, the USA is (in my opinion) in the herd immunity zone. Although re-infections could affect this outcome.

The next few months will show whether I'm right or wrong.

P^3

P.S. So what about Canada?

Key points

Population: 38,015,263
Herd Immunity Threshold: 19,007,631
Cases:1,211,083
Est Infections: 6,055,415
Infection %:16%
Immunizations: 24% (not fully but at least full dose)
Immune Level: 40%

So Canada is getting close.

Also, in Canada the third wave has a different profile with case over 60y dropping from 30% to 19.7%. However the fatality rate has only dropped by a percent to 95.5%.

This graphic tells the story better:

In Canada, COVID-19 is now moving through the younger population.

P^3

The Curious Case of Steve Skojec and the Dangers of Deep Diving into the Crisis Sub-Titled: The Failings of Others

+ JMJ It's been a while now since Steve Skojec sold 1P5 and abandoned the Catholic Faith. I've been a 'Trad' since 1982 and in those 40+ years I seen this death-spiral before with a similar end point. It seems that anyone who jumps into the fray unprepared for the enormous task of righting wrongs will, eventually, become discouraged by not the task but the people who surround them. I remember when Skojec complained of the treatment his family received from a traditional priest. This seems to have been the start of the end for him. So what can we learn from the likes of Steve Skojec, Michael Voris (maybe?), Louie Verrecchio, Gerry Matatix and other celebrity Catholics? Probably quite a lot about what not to do. First, don't burn out on the crisis? When you burn out, on work or anything else, little things assume a more greater importance than they are due. This is one of my 'canary in the coal mine' signals that I've been stretching myself too th...

Communique about Avrille Dominicans - SSPX.org

+ JMJ Having completed the review of the 'Avrille' perspective, this communique from the French District Superior is perfectly timed. I believe that the 'resistance' has lost rationality and further argumentation simply results in their holding on to their false ideal all the more firmly. Pray much ... First, for them to acquiesce to the grace of humility in order to obtain a clear perspective on the principles involved. Second, that we may remain faithful to the Church, and Her Dogmas, Doctrines and Principles. Lest we become that which against we strove ... P^3 Courtesy of SSPX.org

Morning and Evening and other sundry Prayers

+ JMJ Along the theme of P^3 (Prayer, Penance, Patience), and for my own reference ... here is a collection of Morning and Evening prayers from the Ideal Daily Missal along with some additional prayers. In this crisis of the Church, I do not think it is possible to do too much prayer, penance and have patience. P^3

A Reply to Martin Blackshaw’s FLAWED Remnant article titled: FLAWED: SSPX Advice on Abortion-tainted Vaccines

+ JMJ An article has appeared in the Remnant (link to article) and I am afraid that there are a number of flaws in it that need to be addressed. The author, Martin Blackshaw, believes that both the Church and the SSPX are misapplying the principle of Moral Theology called 'Cooperation In Evil'. Unfortunately, Mr. Blackshaw rests most of his arguments on citing authors that support his position, without considering the possibility that they are wrong. This highlights a key factor in this crisis: ignorance of the faith and its application . I don't am not singling out Mr. Blackshaw for this criticism, I have observed that it applies to laity and religious, superior and subject a like. No one seems immune in this enduring crisis, myself included. I further believe that this ignorance is why so many Catholics, both traditional and non, rely on their gut feeling or "Catholic conscience" for charting their way through this crisis of the faith. While...

Magisterium and Levels of Assent

+ JMJ Understanding the levels of assent to be given to the teachings of the Church is a critical success factor in walking the knife's edge during this crisis of the Church. The levels of assent are generally associated with the theological grades of certainty, which are not surprisingly mirrored by the censures for contravening the teachings of the various levels.

Tradicat

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