How many more must die for the throne? or How to combat FUD! - Part 3 (Update 1

How many more must die for the throne? or How to combat FUD! - Part 3 (Update 1 - At Bottom of Post)

JMJ

Smith made the following statement::

Simple. On Dec. 27, 2020, I took the official world COVID death numbers from worldometers.com, divided it by the world population of 7.8 billion, moved the resulting number's decimal point two places to the right to get a percentage and a total population mortality rate. That TPMR was 0.023%. In contrast, taking an average of the estimates that have been made for total deaths from Spanish flu, and dividing it by the estimated world population at that time, etc. you get a TPMR for Spanish flu of 2.33%

Smith and I have been exchanging emails about this stat and a few other things.

First, what is the TPMR for the Spanish Flu and what does it mean?

Total Population Mortality rate.

I understand that there is some variation in the estimates of the population of the World in 1918. This is understandable on a number of levels.

I've seen census notations from that era., so the USA had a working census system.

So this is probably a more reliable population for assessing the TPMR.

As I noted in part 2 of this series, we can reliably calculate the impact that Spanish Influenza had on the population in 1918 as well as today.

H1N1 (USA) Deaths 675k / Population (1918) 105,000,000 = 0.0064 (0.64%)
SARS-CoV-2 (USA) Deaths 589,207 / Population (2021) 332,606,157 = 0.0018 (0.18%)

While the US SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is still going on, to reach the same level of impact as the Spanish Influenza an additional 1,539,472 people would have to die from that pathogen. Even if the seven day average of 722 deaths per day were to continue the pandemic would have to last an additional 5.8years.

That appears to be unlikely given that a third wave does not appear to be manifesting and the death rate is declining.

As I noted in How Many More ..., it does indeed look like the USA is on the edge of herd immunity due to infection and its immunization plan.

It also looks like, as Smith was trying to point out, that it won't be as bad as 1918. The death toll from H1N1 was 3.6 times worse than those that have died so far. Barring a 3rd wave, we will probably see only between another 50k to 120k more deaths in the USA.

The pandemic isn't over yet ... but from the data I have been able to access, none of the variants have mutated to such a degree as to escape the immunizing effects of either exposure or the current vaccines.

With an estimated IFR of 0.5%, we can estimate that it could have been much worse if measures had not been taken.

But what people will be asking for a while is ... was it worth it? Most cite the economic impacts.

I take a different perspective, was it not a matter of duty to do what could be done to protect life over money.

Of course this pales in comparison to the continue and deliberate murder of babies, but that is an pandemic of another sort.

P^3

Update 1 - At what point does herd immunity impact the progression of a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2?

So I woke up this morning thinking about how a pathogen passes through a population and ... at what point does it reach herd immunity? I went back to the Wiki page and found the formula.

So the current Ro for SARS-CoV-2 is 2. So herd immunity threshold is about 50%. Here's the graph that I found

So - once you get to 50% the outbreak should peter out. So what does that mean for this pandemic?

I'll stick with the states since I'm on that theme and they seem to be heading towards herd immunity.

A 50% herd immunity in the states is 166,303,078 people. So, assuming that half the population needs to be infected, no vaccine is available, and an IFR of 0.005 we arrive at a theoretical fatality of 831,515 people.

So there have been 33,044,872 cases in the states. The ratio cited at the beginning was that cases represent about 20% of infections. So that means that Cases = 0.2 * Infections and ergo infections = Cased / 0.2 = 165,224,360 or ... about half the population.

Vaccinations in the states have reached about 24%.

So yep, the USA is (in my opinion) in the herd immunity zone. Although re-infections could affect this outcome.

The next few months will show whether I'm right or wrong.

P^3

P.S. So what about Canada?

Key points

Population: 38,015,263
Herd Immunity Threshold: 19,007,631
Cases:1,211,083
Est Infections: 6,055,415
Infection %:16%
Immunizations: 24% (not fully but at least full dose)
Immune Level: 40%

So Canada is getting close.

Also, in Canada the third wave has a different profile with case over 60y dropping from 30% to 19.7%. However the fatality rate has only dropped by a percent to 95.5%.

This graphic tells the story better:

In Canada, COVID-19 is now moving through the younger population.

P^3

The Curious Case of Steve Skojec and the Dangers of Deep Diving into the Crisis Sub-Titled: The Failings of Others

+ JMJ It's been a while now since Steve Skojec sold 1P5 and abandoned the Catholic Faith. I've been a 'Trad' since 1982 and in those 40+ years I seen this death-spiral before with a similar end point. It seems that anyone who jumps into the fray unprepared for the enormous task of righting wrongs will, eventually, become discouraged by not the task but the people who surround them. I remember when Skojec complained of the treatment his family received from a traditional priest. This seems to have been the start of the end for him. So what can we learn from the likes of Steve Skojec, Michael Voris (maybe?), Louie Verrecchio, Gerry Matatix and other celebrity Catholics? Probably quite a lot about what not to do. First, don't burn out on the crisis? When you burn out, on work or anything else, little things assume a more greater importance than they are due. This is one of my 'canary in the coal mine' signals that I've been stretching myself too th...

Tradical Commentary on: Restore DC Catholicism: SSPX And Austrilian Bishops - Two Different Errors

+ JMJ An interesting thing has happened on the discussion that prompted my article on whether it is sinful to attend the Novus Ordo Missae . The blog owner of RDCC has shut down discussion by locking the article. That is their prerogative, but I am puzzled as to why? Perhaps it has something to do with some of the latter comments. They didn't believe the teaching on intention with regards to confecting the Sacraments. This is not the first time I've experienced incredulity on this topic ( reference articles ). Really this isn't about what they believe but the truth. They seem to believe that the objections to the Novus Ordo Missae are simply about "overly delicate sensibilities". In response to this I am reblogging a number of articles by the SSPX. Perhaps it was the comment made by Bishop Schneider, a currently well revered hero (who deserved the accolades) but apparently has said something similar to the SSPX. I suspect that it is more...

Australia: Seal of the Confessional Outlawed at the Federal Level

+ JMJ This is simply another step in the attack on the Catholic Church. Interestingly, California's attempt to do the same failed. P^3 Courtesy of FSSPX.news Australia: Seal of the Confessional Outlawed at the Federal Level December 19, 2019 Source: fsspx.news On December 2, 2019, the Australian Conference of Bishops (ACBC) denounced the agreement between the Attorneys General of each state and the Australian federal government, with the aim of standardizing the laws imposing on priests the obligation to denounce any alleged fact of ill-treatment of minors that would be learned in the context of the sacrament of penance. “Counterproductive and unjust” are the terms with which Archbishop Mark Coleridge, Archbishop of Brisbane and President of the ACBC, denounced the new prejudicial legal norms on the sacramental seal of the confessional in Australia. The attorneys gener...

Comparision of the Tridentine, Cranmer and Novus Ordo Masses

+ JMJ I downloaded the comparison that was linked in the previous article on the mass (here) . ... a very good reference! P^3 From: Whispers of Restoration (available at this link) . CHARTING LITURGICAL CHANGE Comparing the 1962 Ordinary of the Roman Mass to changes made during the Anglican Schism; Compared in turn to changes adopted in the creation of Pope Paul VI’s Mass in 1969 The chart on the reverse is a concise comparison of certain ritual differences between three historical rites for the celebration of the Catholic Mass Vetus Ordo: “Old Order,” the Roman Rite of Mass as contained in the 1962 Missal, often referred to as the “Traditional Latin Mass.”The Ordinary of this Mass is that of Pope St. Pius V (1570) following the Council of Trent (1545-63), hence the occasional moniker “Tridentine Mass.” However, Trent only consolidated and codified the Roman Rite already in use at that time; its essential form dates to Pope St. Gregory the Great (+604), in whose time the R...

Morning and Evening and other sundry Prayers

+ JMJ Along the theme of P^3 (Prayer, Penance, Patience), and for my own reference ... here is a collection of Morning and Evening prayers from the Ideal Daily Missal along with some additional prayers. In this crisis of the Church, I do not think it is possible to do too much prayer, penance and have patience. P^3

Tradicat

Search This Blog