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Making Moral Vaccine Decisions - Part B: Situation

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JMJ
 

We need to be objective about the situation and base our reasoning on fact and not speculation.

In December 2019, the world became aware of the emergence of a new SARS virus.  The virus was likely circulating a couple of months prior to this public knowledge.

The virus was labelled as 'novel' because it is new and has not previously been observed as a disease caushing agent in humans. Therefore there is no pre-existing immunity, which makes the general population as a whole vulnerable to infection.

So, regardless of what people want to use as a label for this virus, it exists, and causes illness in people.

 This illness has varying degrees and while more dangerous to those with compromised immune systems, it also strikes the young as well as the old.

The following stats were obtained from Canada's infobase website (link).

Fig 1. COVID-19 Cases In Canada
There have been over 850,000 cases of COVID-19 in Canada.  As shown in the graph, the distribution of cases shows that the majority of the cases are from the younger generations.


Fig. 2. Hospitalized
 
 Of these cases, over 47,000 have been hospitalized, giving Canada a hospitalization rate of 5.5%. This is better than the original situation that estimated hospitalization rates as high as 20%.
 

Fig. 3. Admitted to ICU
 
 As can be seen, the hospitalization touches all age groups, with a foreseen impact on the older generations. This is unlike the Spanish Influenza of a hundred years ago,when the young perished in the second wave.  Among them was my step-uncle who died as a youth.
 
Here's a good video on the Spanish Influenza.






 
Fig. 4. Deceased
 
 Of the 856,457, a total of 21,799 have passed away, providing a case fatality rate of 2.5%. As known the infection fatality rate will be less that this. Studies are varied but the basic numbers stay the same, the IFR is more than seasonal influeza, but less than Spanish Influenza. 

So, what's the point of all of these statistics?

To demonstrate that the virus presents a threat to the general population.

That is the situation.

P^3

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