So, when not approving comments between Athanasius and Peter, accidentally publishing Athanasius' contact information (still feel bad about that), working full time in two different roles, facilitating conflicts and preparing for personal life events - I have been doing some research on the lethality of various pathogens.
Why?
To provide some context around this pandemic.
Early on in the pandemic I had come across the graph shown below. I thought it was a useful thing to put some context around the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
When getting down to the discussion lethality etc it's utility was limited. I've also found that some of their data didn't quite sync up with other data.
In my discussion with Steven, I needed additional information So I found the "Information is Beautiful" graphic (link below).
While this was better, I couldn't zoom in to the lower left hand side of the graph ... but I found that they had published all their data.
Another thing is that I noticed that the lethality and reproduction number of the Spanish Influenza varied from the 'media' type reports that focused on assumed number of cases etc versus the publications (i.e. scientific papers) that I was looking at.
So looking at the above table, we find that the lethality of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic was about 2-3% - in the USA. Worldwide it may have had a higher CFR, but that is where we enter the realm of rough order of magnitude estimates.
What surprised me is two things. First, the CFR is much closer and overlaps that of COVID-19. Second, that because up to now I have held the Spanish Influenza to be among the nastier of Pandemics. This notoreity may be due to the fact that the second wave was particularly lethal to the young, striking them dead in days, if not hours. More on this later.
So, my question is how does COVID-19 stack-up against the 20th Century pandemics?
Here's the answer:
I had fun researching some of the values etc, but first an explanation.
The 'x' axis is the reproduction number that generally shows how easy the pathogen is transmitted. The 'y' axis is the lethality in terms of case fatality rate. The size of the bubble is to give an idea of the severity of an outbreak by multiplying the Ro number by the CFR and then by mulitplying that by 100. This is a visualization technique I use in risk management but is just that a visualization technique.
I have learned / realised that it is important to understand the limitations of these stats before going any further.
First, both are subject to environment variations. I'm not talking about climate change, but the environmental factors - society, healthcare system, population density, hygiene - that affect the spread, severity, and mortality of a disease. CFR tends to start high as the disease picks off the old and weak, and moves downwards as that vulnerable population becomes less available. Reproduction number likewise shifts around due to measures taken to contain an outbreak.
Second, the Spanish Influenza virus (H1N1) has variation in its stats and ... they have a comfortable overlapping with the SARS-CoV-2 stats. When I saw this, I realized why the scientists et al were concerned about this virus as well as SARS-CoV-1. SARS-CoV-1 isn't shown on the graph above, but it is on the one below.
So here we have what I think is a good comparison of the disease - so SAR-CoV-1 is nasty because it had a high CFR. Luckily, it was contained, and its cousin MERS is still causing trouble in the Middle-East but fortunately it is contained.
Looking at the graph all I can say is I now understand why the Governments, Doctors, Scientists et al are concerned. If the Spanish Influenza was bad, this Pandemic had the potential to approach the same scale of devastation.
Early on in the Pandemic, I made the assertion that the governments were damned if they did and damned if they didn't.
Meaning, if they just let the virus rip through the population, it would have overwhelmed the healthcare system and lots of people would have died. If they locked it down properly, cases would be controlled, the healthcare system would cope and not as many people would die.
In both cases, the populace would say one of two things: The Gov didn't do what it was supposed to or they did too much.
This is a lose - lose scenario and we see the second one playing out right now.
So, while I am getting as tired of this pandemic as everyone else, when looking past the media to the numbers, the government response is rationale.
Further, as the pandemic continues there will be more variants of concern. So far they just look like they are more contagious, but there is not enough data to make a judgement on lethality.
Canada is now into its third wave and like the second wave of the Spanish influenza, we have a similar trend hitting the media in Ontario. Note I wrote 'media'. There are reports from Doctors of people in their 20s to 40s are now getting hit harder and dying. Beyond the media, some of my colleagues know younger people who are getting seriously ill from the virus. Ultimately, the way to know is to look at the stats (which I'll do later).
Conclusion
I now understand why the scientists et al are concerned about this pandemic. If the Spanish Influenza was bad, then this pandemic is likewise bad.
Looking at the above graph, it is obvious that it could have been much worse.
So, what do I think?
I think that God is giving us an opportunity to repent and turn back to Him.
As Catholics, you know what happens when a people turns its back on God.
Worse will happen.
P^3
P.S. I will probably do further research on the Spanish Influenza CFR.
References
https://repository.gheli.harvard.edu/repository/12612/
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context
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