Skip to main content

Synod Post-Game Show 4 - The Aftermath of the Synod / Council As Demonstrated By Statistics

Image
By
+
JMJ

In the aftermath of the 'Synod', I think we see simply the fruits of the 'Council'.

In many ways it has every appearance of being a very similar conflict.  With the key difference that in the Council the conflict was over doctrine, in this 'Synod' or 'mini-Council' was over ... morals.  Of course, you can never separate morals from doctrine as they are intrinsically linked.

While most articles that I've seen focus on the final document( DICI ), for good reason, I'd like to make my own contribution to the discussion by focusing on what the Synod told us about the health of the Mystical Body of Christ.

The seed of this can be found in this post by Rorate.  It contains some very simple results on the voting on two core issues: Communion for the 'Divorced and Remarried' and Civil Gay Unions.  Why is this important?

Because these results are, in essence, an opinion survey.



Here are the 'survey' results along with my presumed opinions being canvassed. I used the linked sample size calculator to determine the margin of error and 'confidence' level (95% /99%) for the opinions sample. In the calculations I used 5133 for the total Number of Bishops in the world.

What does that mean?

Well the percentage in favour can be stated as a reliable sampling of the bishops of the world with a margin of error and a degree of confidence in the aforesaid margin of error.  Resulting in the following stats.
  • Opinion: Catholics who have been civilly divorced and remarried should be able to receive Holy Communion (Paragraph 52)
  • Results
    • For:104
    • Against:74
    • Total Sample:178
    • Placeat: 58.4% confidence:  7.08% (95%), 9.31%(99%)


  • Opinion: (Paragraph 55)
  • Results
    • For:118
    • Against:62
    • Total Sample:180
    • Placeat: 65.5%confidence 6.85% (95%) 9.01% (99%)


  • Opinion: Civil marriage and concubinage have positive elements (Paragraph 41)
  • Results
    • For:125
    • Against:54
    • Total Sample:179
    • Placeat: 69.8% confidence 6.61% (95%)  8.7%(99%)

So what do these numbers tell us?

That we can be 99% certain that, in the case of communion for divorcees, between 49.09 and 67.41% agree with this opinion.

My conclusion: We're heading towards a schism on the order of 66% of the Bishops.  How many of the faithful will follow them is a good question. But if the surveys in the states are representative, it will be at least that same ratio.

By way of analogy, the hole is deep and the sides steep.  If the hierarchy keeps on digging, the sides will cave in upon them.

P^3

Reference Links and Materials

Church Stats: CARA
Church Stats # of Bishops: 5133 - Catholic Herald
Church Stats # of Bishops: 5104 - Catholic News
Statistical Calculations: Confidence Interval


Here is the english translations of the final 'relatio' from the Synod.
52. The synod father also considered the possibility of giving the divorced and remarried  access to the Sacraments of Penance and the Eucharist. Some synod fathers insisted on maintaining the present regulations, because of the constitutive relationship between participation in the Eucharist and communion with the Church as well as the teaching on the indissoluble character of marriage. Others expressed a more individualized  approach, permitting access in certain situations and with certain well-defined conditions, primarily in irreversible situations and those involving moral obligations towards children who would have to endure unjust suffering. Access to the sacraments might take place if preceded by a penitential practice, determined by the diocesan bishop. The subject needs to be thoroughly examined, bearing in mind the distinction between an objective sinful situation and extenuating circumstances, given that “imputability and responsibility for an action can be diminished or even nullified by ignorance, inadvertence, duress, fear, habit, inordinate attachments, and other psychological or social factors” (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 1735).
53. Some synod fathers maintained that divorced and remarried persons or those living together can have fruitful recourse to a spiritual communion. Others raised the question as to why, then, they cannot have access “sacramentally”. As a result, the synod fathers requested that further theological study in the matter might point out the specifics of the two forms and their association with the theology of marriage.
55. Some families have members who have a homosexual tendency. In this regard, the synod fathers asked themselves what pastoral attention might be appropriate for them in accordance with the Church’s teaching: “There are absolutely no grounds for considering homosexual unions to be in any way similar or even remotely analogous to God's plan for marriage and family.” Nevertheless, men and women with a homosexual tendency ought to be received with respect and sensitivity. “Every sign of unjust discrimination in their regard should be avoided” (Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Considerations Regarding Proposals to Give Legal Recognition to Unions Between Homosexual Persons, 4.)
41. While continuing to proclaim and foster Christian marriage, the Synod also encourages pastoral discernment of the situations of a great many who no longer live this reality. Entering into pastoral dialogue with these persons is needed to distinguish elements in their lives which can lead to a greater openness to the Gospel of Marriage in its fullness. Pastors ought to identify elements which can foster evangelization and human and spiritual growth. A new element in today’s pastoral activity is a sensitivity to the positive aspects of civilly celebrated marriages and, with obvious differences, cohabitation. While clearly presenting the Christian message, the Church also needs to indicate the constructive elements in these situations which do not yet or no longer correspond to it.

Rorate-Caeli: Relatio
Vatican: Relatio
Catholic World Report: Relatio
Rorate-Caeli: A Synodal Mess

Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

SSPX and the Resistance - A Comparison Of Ecclesiology

By
Shining the light of Church Teaching on the doctrinal positions of the SSPX and the Resistance. Principles are guides used to aid in decision making.  It stands to reason that bad principles will lead to bad decisions. The recent interactions between Rome and the SSPX has challenged a number of closely held cultural assumptions of people in both sides of the disagreement. This has resulted in cultural skirmishes in both Rome and the SSPX. Since it is the smaller of the two, the skirmishes have been more evident within the SSPX.  The cultural fault-line that Bishop Fellay crossed appears to be linked to two points of Catholic Doctrine: Ecclesiology and Obedience.  The cultural difference of view points is strong enough that it has resulted in the expulsion of a number of members.  It should also be noted that some other priests expelled since the beginning of the latest interactions (starting in 2000) held the same view points and have joined with the l...
8 comments
Read more

Morning and Evening and other sundry Prayers

By
+ JMJ Along the theme of P^3 (Prayer, Penance, Patience), and for my own reference ... here is a collection of Morning and Evening prayers from the Ideal Daily Missal along with some additional prayers. In this crisis of the Church, I do not think it is possible to do too much prayer, penance and have patience. P^3
Post a Comment
Read more

Church Militant TV and the SSPX - Again

By
+ JMJ The old narrative used to be that the SSPX was 'schismatic' and 'excommunicated'. Now the excommunication has been lifted for a number of years and the only ones who think it still has effect are the 'resistors'. That leaves the other opponents of the SSPX with the label 'schismatic'. Make it clear, the conservative Catholics have issues with the SSPX probably because they violate some of their assumptions about the Faith and this crisis of the Church. Church Militant TV is one of these the exists along the Catholic thought spectrum. They like the Traditional Mass but must ensure that they don't get tarred with the same 'schismatic' brush that the liberals use against the SSPX.  So what do they do, they use the same brush against the SSPX. The funny thing is that even when the Church does speak, they don't want to listen and persist in calling the SSPX 'schismatic'. Here's a transcript of the latest s...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Curious Case of Steve Skojec and the Dangers of Deep Diving into the Crisis Sub-Titled: The Failings of Others

By
 + JMJ It's been a while now since Steve Skojec sold 1P5 and abandoned the Catholic Faith. I've been a 'Trad' since 1982 and in those 40+ years I seen this death-spiral before with a similar end point. It seems that anyone who jumps into the fray unprepared for the enormous task of righting wrongs will, eventually, become discouraged by not the task but the people who surround them.   I remember when Skojec complained of the treatment his family received from a traditional priest.  This seems to have been the start of the end for him. So what can we learn from the likes of Steve Skojec, Michael Voris (maybe?), Louie Verrecchio, Gerry Matatix and other celebrity Catholics? Probably quite a lot about what not to do. First, don't burn out on the crisis?  When you burn out, on work or anything else, little things assume a more greater importance than they are due.   This is one of my 'canary in the coal mine' signals that I've been stretching myself too th...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Position of the SSPX on Canonizations by the Saint Factory

By
+ JMJ I have sometimes been criticized for including 'St' as a title for Pope John Paul II et al. I've given my reasons here  in a discussion with Alex Long. The question is one of prudence in discussions with ntCatholics and in some cases with tCatholics. In discussions with:  ntCatholics, I will use the title in order to continue the discussion and help them arrive at a realistic understanding of the crisis of the Church. tCatholics, I will use the title in order to broaden their perspective on the doctrine of dogmatic facts. This broader perspective is, in my opinion, essential maintaining a realistic understanding of the crisis of the Church. So from a doctrinal position, I have written the article Dogmatic Fact of Fancy  and includes a reference on canonizations. Now, I know the position of the SSPX is that the canonizations are doubtful (see references below) and I also know of at least one non-SSPX theologian who agrees with the level of doubt du...
Post a Comment
Read more