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A Different American President's Opinion on Afghanistan

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JMJ

I have to admit that President Trump's actions over the past few days have been more than annoying. 

Trump as a Soviet Negotiator

As I've mentioned, Trump appears to Negotiate like the Russian or Soviets like Herb Cohen described in his book "You can negotiate anything".  

All "Soviets" whether for Moscow or from Memphis [Tradicat: ... or New York], use the same six steps in their negotiation dance:

  1. Extreme initial positions: They always start with tough demands or ridiculous offers that affect the other side's expectation level.
  2. Limited authority. The negotiators themselves have little or no authority to make any concessions.
  3. Emotional tactics: They get red faced, raise their voices and act exasperated - horrified that they are being take advantage of. Occasionally they will stalk out of a meeting in a huff.
  4. Adversary concessions viewed as weakness. Should you give in and concede them something, they are unlikely to reciprocate.
  5. Stingy in their concessions. They delay making any concession and when they finally do, it reflects only a miniscule change in their position.
  6. Ignore deadlines. They tend to be patient and act as though time is of no significance to them.

Speaking about the 'mid-way' offer by Trump. It isn't a midway offer, its only midway for the tariffs that he has decided to impose. Looking at the list, Trump definitely has tapped #1, #2 (Trump holds all authority), #3 (he has been pushing this button a lot),  #5 (the mid-way offer, delaying Tariffs instead of removing).

While #4 and #6 haven't happened yet  - we'll see if Canada blinks is Trump sees it as a weakness.

Unexpected Consequences

So while Europe is now doing what Trump wanted, that is spending more on military spending and contributing more to the defense of Ukraine, it may actually hurt the USA military defense  industry.  I've already noticed European countries restarting mothballed weapons facilities and awarding them contracts that, presumably, would have gone to USA companies.

It will be interesting to watch.

 




Afghanistan: a Tale of Two Presidents

As a side point, I have been reading George W. Bush's memoirs - Decision Points. When I got to the following paragraph, I remembered that Trump is the one who started the Afghan withdrawal - a withdrawal finished by Biden.

Bush's words are definitely prescient:

Ultimately, the only way the Taliban and al-Qaeda can retake Afghanistan is if America abandons the country. Allowing the extremists to reclaim power would force Afghan woman back into subservience, remove girls from school and betray all the gains of the past nine years. It would also endanger our security. After the Cold War, the United States gave up on Afghanistan. The result was chaos, civil war, the Taliban takeover, sanctuary for al-Qaeda, and the nightmare of 9/11. To forget that lesson would be a dreadful mistake.

So - I don't know what will happen and all the while remember to keep the Faith.


P^3.


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