Skip to main content

CBC: How Deadly is COVID-19

+
JMJ




Lombardy
A priest stands by one of the coffins stored at the church of San Giuseppe in Seriate, near the hard-hit city of Bergamo in the Lombardy region of Italy on Thursday. (Piero Cruciatti/AFP/Getty Images)


There's a lot of focus on the numbers as people try to rationalise for and against measures that restrict their 'freedom'.

So let's add a little clarity.

First the fatality rate is a result of sampling a population. If the sample only includes those symptomatic, then the statistic reflects the fatality of those in that cohort.

In other words, it is a sample of the 15 and 5 percenters that are really sick.  No one knows COVID-19's actual fatality rate because of the skewed data. What they do know is that if a person falls in the 20% level, it is bad.

While that may sound like a small percentage (hey 80% was a 'B' in school eh?) it still represents a huge portion of a population.  The population of Canada is 37.59M, the states is 327.5M.  This translates into 7.5M Canadians and 65.5M Americans being hospitalized.  Of this population, based on the Chinese fatality data I posted earlier, the upper fatality would be ~28%.  This is based on a 100% infection rate of the population.  I don't know how to estimate / validate any smaller number.

So, the data shows a worse case scenario of  2.1M Canadians and 91.7M American deaths.  The key factor in this stat is the level of care provided early in the disease.  If the healthcare system is overwhelmed (ie Italy), then things get really bad. If the population is older (immune systems diminish with age), then the impact will also be greater.

Hence the need to slow its progression through the population.

That said, I feel that the concerns over the restrictions on personal freedoms are, in large part, misplaced.

If there is a disease passing through a country, the leaders have an obligation to protect society.

If left unchecked, it could create a societal upheaval and breakdown of what societal norms remain in the wasteland of the post-Vatican 2 world.

So, take this time to reflect on your lives repent of your sins, pray for forgiveness and make this your best lent ever.

Because the coffin over which a priest is praying may be your own.

P^3

Reference: CBC How Deadly is COVID-19?

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Comparision of the Tridentine, Cranmer and Novus Ordo Masses

+ JMJ I downloaded the comparison that was linked in the previous article on the mass (here) . ... a very good reference! P^3 From: Whispers of Restoration (available at this link) . CHARTING LITURGICAL CHANGE Comparing the 1962 Ordinary of the Roman Mass to changes made during the Anglican Schism; Compared in turn to changes adopted in the creation of Pope Paul VI’s Mass in 1969 The chart on the reverse is a concise comparison of certain ritual differences between three historical rites for the celebration of the Catholic Mass Vetus Ordo: “Old Order,” the Roman Rite of Mass as contained in the 1962 Missal, often referred to as the “Traditional Latin Mass.”The Ordinary of this Mass is that of Pope St. Pius V (1570) following the Council of Trent (1545-63), hence the occasional moniker “Tridentine Mass.” However, Trent only consolidated and codified the Roman Rite already in use at that time; its essential form dates to Pope St. Gregory the Great (+604), in whose time the R...

SSPX and the Resistance - A Comparison Of Ecclesiology

Shining the light of Church Teaching on the doctrinal positions of the SSPX and the Resistance. Principles are guides used to aid in decision making.  It stands to reason that bad principles will lead to bad decisions. The recent interactions between Rome and the SSPX has challenged a number of closely held cultural assumptions of people in both sides of the disagreement. This has resulted in cultural skirmishes in both Rome and the SSPX. Since it is the smaller of the two, the skirmishes have been more evident within the SSPX.  The cultural fault-line that Bishop Fellay crossed appears to be linked to two points of Catholic Doctrine: Ecclesiology and Obedience.  The cultural difference of view points is strong enough that it has resulted in the expulsion of a number of members.  It should also be noted that some other priests expelled since the beginning of the latest interactions (starting in 2000) held the same view points and have joined with the l...

If Pope Francis is bad - what about Pope St. John Paul II et al?

+ JMJ So here we are on the apparent cusp of yet another post conciliar Papal canonization. This time we have Pope's John-Paul I and Paul VI canonizations to 'look forward' to. This follows, obviously, on the heels of Pope St. John Paul II's canonization? So the first question that I usually encounter is: How is it possible, keeping in mind the doctrine on infallibility of canonizations (note doctrine not dogma), that Pope St. John Paul II is a Saint? First, what does it mean???  According to the doctrine of dogmatic facts - it is the universal opinion of Theologians that canonizations are infallible.  It means that they enjoy the beatific vision.  ... that's it.  That is the doctrine and it is at the level of universal opinion of theologians.  It is called a 'dogmatic fact'. That they made mistakes is obvious.  That the miracles seem to not be very miraculous is also a bit of an issue. Here's something to consider: The rush that surrou...

Spiritual Journey Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre - Extracts

+ JMJ I have posted these two chapters to provide context for the quote of: It is, therefore, a strict duty for every priest wanting to remain Catholic to separate himself from this Conciliar Church for as long as it does not rediscover the Tradition of the Church and of the Catholic Faith. P^3 Courtesy of SSPX.ca Chapter II The Perfections of God We ought to remember during this entire contemplation of God that we must apply all that is said of God to Our Lord Jesus Christ, Who is God. We cannot separate Jesus Christ from God. We cannot separate the Christian religion from Jesus Christ, Who is God, and we must affirm and believe that only the Catholic religion is the Christian religion. These affirmations have, as a result, inescapable conclusions that no ecclesiastic authority can contest: outside of Jesus Christ and the Catholic religion, that is, outsi...

Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (de fide) - Expanded Listing: Answer for Reader

 + JMJ  A reader asked the following question in the 2015 version of the article on the Dogmas of the Catholic Faith (link) : 117: "In the state of fallen nature it is morally impossible for man without Supernatural Revelation, to know easily, with absolute certainty and without admixture of error, all religious and moral truths of the natural order." Where can you find this in the documents of the Church? ( Link to comment )  Here's the reference from Ott: The citation that Ott provided was Denzinger 1786 and the source document is Dogmatic Consitution Concerning the Faith from the First Vatican Council (Papal Encyclicals - link) : Chapter 2 On Revelation, Article 3: It is indeed thanks to this divine revelation , that those matters concerning God, which are not of themselves beyond the scope of human reason, can, even in the present state of the human race, be known by everyone, without difficulty, with firm certitude and with no intermingling of error. Here's ...