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CBC: How Deadly is COVID-19

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JMJ




Lombardy
A priest stands by one of the coffins stored at the church of San Giuseppe in Seriate, near the hard-hit city of Bergamo in the Lombardy region of Italy on Thursday. (Piero Cruciatti/AFP/Getty Images)


There's a lot of focus on the numbers as people try to rationalise for and against measures that restrict their 'freedom'.

So let's add a little clarity.

First the fatality rate is a result of sampling a population. If the sample only includes those symptomatic, then the statistic reflects the fatality of those in that cohort.

In other words, it is a sample of the 15 and 5 percenters that are really sick.  No one knows COVID-19's actual fatality rate because of the skewed data. What they do know is that if a person falls in the 20% level, it is bad.

While that may sound like a small percentage (hey 80% was a 'B' in school eh?) it still represents a huge portion of a population.  The population of Canada is 37.59M, the states is 327.5M.  This translates into 7.5M Canadians and 65.5M Americans being hospitalized.  Of this population, based on the Chinese fatality data I posted earlier, the upper fatality would be ~28%.  This is based on a 100% infection rate of the population.  I don't know how to estimate / validate any smaller number.

So, the data shows a worse case scenario of  2.1M Canadians and 91.7M American deaths.  The key factor in this stat is the level of care provided early in the disease.  If the healthcare system is overwhelmed (ie Italy), then things get really bad. If the population is older (immune systems diminish with age), then the impact will also be greater.

Hence the need to slow its progression through the population.

That said, I feel that the concerns over the restrictions on personal freedoms are, in large part, misplaced.

If there is a disease passing through a country, the leaders have an obligation to protect society.

If left unchecked, it could create a societal upheaval and breakdown of what societal norms remain in the wasteland of the post-Vatican 2 world.

So, take this time to reflect on your lives repent of your sins, pray for forgiveness and make this your best lent ever.

Because the coffin over which a priest is praying may be your own.

P^3

Reference: CBC How Deadly is COVID-19?

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